This is really immature, but I find it all too funny. There is a Republican minister & businessman in Texas running for Congress by the name of John Manlove.
His campaign theme: Rock Solid Conservative. Here are some bumper sticker themes I've come up with...
"Texas wants Manlove!"
"I support Manlove!"
"Congress NEEDS Manlove!"
"Congress could benefit from some Manlove."
As much as I disagree with this guy on almost everything, I think it'd be worth electing him to office. Who knows, maybe one day Speaker of the House Manlove? It says something about the people of Texas... in that they're not all perpetually 10 years old and get a kick out of a man's gay sounding last name.
...there is a crisis in the world. Who do you want to answer the phone in the White House?
This is the scenario painted by a Clinton commercial that aired today in Ohio. Is the Clinton campaign resorting to the politics of fear, or just playing up her "national security" creds?
The Obama campaign responded by releasing a similar commercial, which will air tomorrow. The Obama spin: it's not about experience, it's about judgment.
The national media is reporting enormous sums of money being spent on advertising in Ohio. For Obama campaign, somewhere on the level of $23 million dollars compared with $14 million for Clinton.
To make things more complicated, the two major unions that endorsed Obama are running their own separate advertisements in support of his candidacy, UCFW & SEIU. Factoring in the free-advertising from labor unions, Obama is out-commericialing (not a word) Clinton 4-1 in Ohio.
Recent polls in Ohio show Clinton in the lead, but Obama's got the momentum. According to Pollster.com, which averages polls: NBC's Chuck Todd reported today that the Obama campaign bought 2 minute blocks of time in both Ohio & Texas. 2 minute Obama campaign commercials will run during the 5 PM, 6 PM, 10 PM & 11 PM local news broadcasts in both states this upcoming Monday night.
I do not expect Obama to win Ohio. Sure, he's polling within 10 percent of her in a state that had him down 30 points just a month ago, but I think that Clinton's economic message and her sense of "experience" will resonate with voters more forcefully in a state that is economically crippled.
Thinking on the reverse, Obama has always exceeded expectations. In Iowa, polls leading up to the caucuses indicated an excruciatingly close rate with Clinton & Obama neck and neck at 30% each. Obama won by 8%. In Virginia, polls showed that Clinton would lose, but only by a few percent... Obama took the state with a 20 point victory. In Wisconsin, the Clinton campaign invested time and money trying to defend the average working class Democratic voter, typically a Clinton supporter. The campaign thought they could pull it close, if not win an upset... Obama won by a substantial margin, almost by 20 points.
The point being that despite what the polls have predicted, Obama has consistently won by substantial margins. He has exceeded expectations (excluding the notable New Hampshire exception). His campaign is turning out disenfranchised and atypical voting blocks---African Americans and youth namely. And recently, by cutting into Clinton's core base.
The Rule of 50: 1. If you're a female over 50 OR 2. If you make under $50,000 a year You're a Clinton supporter.
This equation held up in the early states and into Super Tuesday. She won both voting blocks by substantial margins. But in Wisconsin, Virginia and Maryland, she lost both (critical voting constituencies) narrowly.
The parallels between Ohio and Wisconsin are many. They've both suffered from outsourcing as a result of NAFTA (which was implemented during the Clinton Administration), they both have a strong traditional Democratic base and for the most part, they're middle class. Basically, Clinton voters.
Once upon a time Obama was the candidate of the affluent, the educated, the young, the Black and among men. But recent trends reveal he is reaching into the heart of Clinton's voting base, and pulling the life from her campaign.
I think Ohio is unpredictable in nature. It's a microcosm of American society and I am hesitant to rely on recent poll numbers or trends.
Two things will happen: Clinton will narrowly win or Obama will narrowly win. There is no room for Clinton to win the substantial victory she so desperately needs.
One thing is for certain: Ohioans can end this race on March 4th by voting Obama.
Democrats... it's time to take Dennis Hastert's old seat! Illinois will have a special congressional election on March 8th to fill the seat of former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.
Illinois' 14th district is a conservative bastion resting in the North Central heart of Illinois. It's rural, traditional values Republicans who sent Denny Hastert to Capital Hill. Geographically, the 14th district touches the Chicago Democratic congressional strongholds to the east, and spans the width of the state to the Mississippi River in west. It starts in the outskirts of the Northwest suburbs (a few miles from my old home in Barrington) and is gerrymandered southeast.
This year is about change is Washington, and guess what? A Democrat now leads a Republican in the polls in a Republican stronghold.
Democrat Bill Foster, a scientist, is leading Republican milkman Jim Oberweis in recent polls, but not by much. (Oberweis owns a famous Chicago dairy chain--great ice cream by the way...)
I met Jim Oberweis at a Republican party fund raiser two years ago during his run for the governorship of Illinois. He is indeed a great guy with a great personality, but to put bluntly, he scares me. The man is a rank and file Republican. He holds strict fiscally and socially conservative values that stand in sharp contrast to what I believe. But more certainly, I have never forgiven him for this commercial he aired in his 2002 run for the United States Senate:
I was in high school when I watched that commercial, and I remember thinking then as I do now, wow, what a asshole. The reality is, Oberweis is a failure. He ran unsuccessfully for both the governorship of Illinois and the Republican nomination for the United States Senate. (Losing to Jack Ryan who later dropped out when details of his sex life emerged. The Illinois Republican party would later nominate Maryland carpetbagger Alan Keyes to lose to Illinois State Senator Barack Obama).
Bill Foster is the alternative. He stands opposed to the Iraq war, for affordable health care, fiscal responsibility and for border security. He is a political moderate, neither liberal nor conservative, who won't vote with the rank and file of the Democratic party and only with the interests of Illinois' 14th district in mind.
I am a child. I can't keep something the same for too long-- it just bugs me... and in this case it was all of 3 days...
To be fair, I didn't like how boring the header looked. I felt that with the title like "Advance America" a more prominent flag was needed against the backdrop of something that actually displayed progress. (The old stone building with the gray color tone didn't seem to imply the "future.")
Hence, here we have a flag with a towering skyscraper in the background. Now that is progress.
Come on, give me some points for creativity. And okay, if you think its completely out of sync with the look and feel of the blog, speak up.
New cool feature: refresh the page, the header changes constantly.
I'll be back with a new post tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy Jon Stewart make fun of Clinton & Obama at the Cleveland debate:
First Read MSNBC: Watching local TV here in Ohio, it feels like Obama has a 4-to-1 advantage -- with SEIU, UFCW and Obama just blitzing the airwaves compared with Clinton. It's happening in all four states. In fact, per TV ad expert Evan Tracey, Obama has outspent Clinton $23 million to $14 million in the last 30 days. How is she expected to hold a big lead if she gets outspent this badly? The third party groups are like salt in the Clinton wound.
On the Clinton side, Mandy Grunwald that between Obama's own spending and two unions spending on his behalf, Clinton is being outspent four-to-one in Ohio and between two-to-one and three-to-one in Texas.
"They're trying to crush us," she said.
Post Debate Reaction:
ABC- Rick Kline: That was an exhausting 90 minutes -- just to watch. Probably as close to a draw as you can imagine -- really, two very talented politicians and debaters fighting it out extremely closely. On one level -- no clear winner is good news for Obama, the frontrunner, who avoided any significant missteps.
TIME- Joe Kline: He won. He not only won by not losing, but he also won on points--and on demeanor, and on quickness, if not quite substance (although this was a fairly substantive debate on both sides) NBC's Chuck Todd: Whew, the entire debate had a very tense feel; a combination of two very competitive Democratic candidates and two very tough questioners. Both candidates were put on the spot and survived. ... Overall, it's hard to see this debate as changing the trajectory of this race; Obama was a bit more defensive tonight than last week and had more stumbles tonight than in more recent encounters. Clinton really flubbed that 'SNL' line and she did so early so it made it into a bunch of writeups.
Liveblog time! Check in every now and then and I'll be writing some entries! This should be fun!
If Obama delivers the knock out blow to Hillary tonight and next week, this could be the last Democratic debate. As a liberal, I certainly hope that this is the case. We really, really need a nominee to unite behind to combat John McCain.
Update 9:30: By the way, I'm live from the UD College Democrats debate watching party. Packed room of mostly Obama supporters... there's this one kid with a Hillary sign and Hillary shirt, but overall, a very friendly Obama audience. It's a university, what do you expect?
9:02: Ouch, nice contrast between Obama and Clinton. BUT how will she respond!??!? 9:03: She starts by going after his fliers and mailers... oh god, were only a minute into this debate and you can tell it'll be interesting! 9:05: Drudge Report Garb. Clinton denies the photo in Drudge... ha ha ha... why the hell is she the only one who is speaking, LET THE MAN SPEAK! 9:06: Obama going on her substantively, but with poise. He looks calm, reserved, collected. Clinton looks kind of angry. 9:08: Are they debating mailers or health care? 9:09: Notice how she says "attack" Oh god, the mailing again. 9:11: Obama is keeping it substantive, not confronting the mailer issue. He's going after her on specifics of health care. Clinton is trying to keep it on Obama sending out a misleading mailer. 9:12: Wow, she talks over Obama, stops Brian Williams. She sounds very authoritative.. will this work for her? Now she's switched to substantive, but still powerful. 9:15: Obama discusses his mandates for children and contrasts his policy with Clinton. Still substantive. I wouldn't call this fireworks, just a very heated policy debate. Ouch on the "Hillary" comment. 9:16: "Senator"... creepy Brian Williams. She keeps talking over Brian. You can tell she really wants to come out strong on this. This is just funny. Perhaps Brian should keep his nose out of this and let them talk. 9:17: A 16 minute discussion on health care, not a bad thing. 9:17: She's complaining because she keeps getting the first question??? That gives her the chance to articulate the debate!!! And what!?! Bringing up SNL! Come on Hill, SNL made fun of Obama, they've made fun of you, get over it. 9:19: Cleveland Plain Dealer "erroneous attacks" on Clinton from Obama. We need to "fix" NAFTA, it's not working. Did I mention that my husband passed it and it's the reason that Ohioans have lost jobs? 9:21: Obama: good substantive answer. I think the theme so far: heated substantive debate. Perhaps that's what Ohio needs 9:23: Clinton "we will opt out of NAFTA unless we renegotiate it." Oh gosh, pander to those rust belt jobs that are lost, why don't ya. 9:24: Attempt to attack Obama, Tim Russert interrupts. Ouch on the "much different" words... 9:25: Clinton: "I was very skeptical about it." She's tried to reduce the impact of NAFTA. 9:26: To Obama: you told farmers that you support NAFTA, what's up with that? Brings up Chicago Tribune endorsement, I'm not clear on his NAFTA position yet. 9:30: Ouch on Tim Russert's 5 million jobs comment. 9:31: In 2000, I thought Al Gore would be president. Hmm... politics much? 9:32: It dulled down for a few minutes, in rhetoric and tone. 9:33: Obama: "Sen. Clinton equates experience with longevity in Washington." Makes the case for his judgment... basically, out of his stump speeches. You know he's rehearsed this. 9:35: Williams: you passed on the "qualified" question on Sen. Obama. Clinton: Obama is to be commended for making a speech against the war, but he didn't have responsibility, and he didn't have to vote. Hmm... basically saying that he isn't responsible, that he is all just words. And why is Obama just holding his hands across his face... probably thinking about how he's gonna respond to this. Now Clinton attacks him on the Pakistan problem... says Obama "threated" to bomb Pakistan. Okay, obviously there are substantive differences here, but she just leveled like 5 different attacks in the last 3 minutes while integrating her "experience." How is Obama going to go through all of that, point by point? 9:39: Hahahah, "bus in the ditch" response. Everyone here is responding positively to Obama's response. Look at how calm and collected he is, responding to her point by point. Good job Obama. Also, notice how he doesn't "umm" anymore. One year ago that was my biggest critique of his speaking style, he used "umm" to express a vocal collection of his thoughts. 9:40: Ouch on the "similar" to John McCain's position's response from Obama. 9:42: "IF Iraq goes to hell... what?" Clinton: Russert, you're disillusion, what the heck... stop making hypotheticals. Interesting attempt at elder statesmanship. Classic traditional debate tatic, don't accept the premise of the question or the hypothetical. That got Obama in trouble last summer.
Update II 9:46: Battery is going to die, I'll be on later. If there is a commercial I'll be able to find an outlet but it's dark. So come back if there is a commercial, if not I'll put up a post about the debate later tonight.
9:51: Okay, found an outlet! We turned on a light briefly, I found an outlet and I'm back! 9:51: Hillary Clinton video acting like an idiot. 9:52: "I'd give her points for delivery." Clinton: ha ha ha ha (machine., robot...) Obama: "If Clinton thinks thats all talk..." ouch, ouch. Nice job using that against her. He probably was coached on that. You'd imagine his campaign staffers anticipated this coming up. 9:55: "What did you mean Sen. Clinton by that video?" "I was just having fun... trying to get health insurance will not be easy." I want to gag. She's bringing this up AGAIN. OH GOD, SHE'S TALKING ABOUT HER FAILED HEALTH CARE PLAN 15 YEARS AGO! STOP DOING THAT! No one wants to look to the past! The future, Hillary, the future! 9:56: 'people are miserable and I am the only person to solve your problems.' She says she voted against Cheney bill, tries to draw comparison with Obama by saying he voted for both. 9:57: Brian Williams, why the hell did you not let him respond and just show that damn video? 9:59: She said she voted for it but hoped it wouldn't past... nice line with the "as a general rule, that doesn't work." Drew lots of laughs. 10:00: Discusses more substance, discusses how the only way to get thing done is by mobilizing the American people into paying attention to the government. Ties his rhetoric with his actions, but how will she respond! Ouch, some "ooohs!" here when he attacked her for special interests. 10:02: Obama: "when I am the nominee".... uh... then changed "IF I'm the nominee..." Russert hammers him on public financing for campaigns. Will he accept public financing? (even though he'd lose millions?) 10:03: Nice reply, not gonna accept public funding BECAUSE we have so many individual donors. Nice reply. 10:04: Sen. Clinton: why won't you release your tax return? 10:04: So many people are responding so generously... shameless plug for www.hillaryclinton.com. "I'll release my tax returns by the general election..." I can't get them out by next Tuesday, but I'll work on it... come on, you have a huge staff, you can sooo easily do it. Clinton, you are so shady. 10:06: Russert: Sen. Obama: you must react to Mr. Faracan's (sp) support. Obama: he expressed pride in an African American, I cannot censor him. "Good guy" comment got some laughs. 10:09: "What of your policies toward Israel, you wrote in your book...." okay, well formed question, it sounded like a snap from Russert. And it looks like Obama's got to dance around the question. Obama emphasizing his Jewish ties and discusses the connections between Jews and Blacks. It's a dance, but I think most people wouldn't realize the question wasn't answered. 10:11: Hillary: WAIT I HAVE THIS EXPERIENCE WITH DENYING A GROUP'S SUPPORT! I was willing to take that stand... that is such a bitchy attack. 10:12: Russert: are you rejecting Sen. Obama is standing on principle? Clinton: No.... Room erupts in laughter... she's ridiculous, lets see Obama's reply. 10:13: If Sen. Clinton feels the word "reject" is stronger than "denounce" than sure... Big laughter. Nice reply!
Commercial 2
10:18: Williams: Obama you're the most liberal senator, what's up? Obama, well the National Journal sucks. And let me talk about why I'm attracting more Republican and Independent votes than anyone else. 10:20: To Clinton: What do you think of Putin's successor? 10:22: "Ohhh" in the room as Clinton can't pronounce the Russian leader's name 10:23: What if Russian invades Kosovo? Obama: US should state that's unacceptable... we have a strong international structure, we don't have to work in isolation. He's demonstrating a good level of knowledge on US foreign policy in the Baltic states. I didn't expect this. 10:25: What would you take back in terms of votes? Hillary: "I would not have voted for the Iraq war again". That's a big revelation. I wonder how that will change Hillary's strategy on talking about the Iraq war here on in? She's officially kind of apologized for it... she didn't take it back when asked the same question in previous debates. It's probably another parse. 10:26: Obama brings up Terri Shaivo... he shouldn't have. Thats a potent issue for a general election campaign. The religious conservatives will use it against him. Probably not an issue in the primaries. 10:27: I am proud of Sen. Clinton. Nice job going out on the high road. 10:28: Obama: peoples' expectations are so modest. We must change the way business is done in Washington. This kind of reminds me of the way Hillary went out in Texas 10:29: Obama: I think I'm better (as a nominee). Hillary is good... then he draws distinctions with John Mccain. All ready acting like a nominee. Again, the high ground. 10:30: Obama: I have a proven track record, gov't transparency, accountability. Pretty much a standard closing. 10:31: Is there a fundamental question Sen. Obama must answer? Oh gosh will she go negative!? 10:31: Hillary: we both care about this country, it's been an honor to campaign and I intend to do everything to win, but it's been an honor to campaign." Plays the women card... women clap in the room. "Either one of us will make history, but who will change the country?" 10:33: I didn't give up with universal health care. (then why don't we have it???) Will you help us?
All right, well good debate overall. I think Hillary came off as very authoritative. Great job for both of them.
